XRPUSD has been trading within a descending channel pattern on its 4-hour time frame, indicating a persistent bearish trend that has dominated since early March.
Price recently found support around the $1.59 level, which aligns with the 0.00% Fibonacci retracement level, suggesting a potential bounce or at least a temporary relief rally.
After establishing a significant peak near the $2.58 level (100.00% Fibonacci), XRP has formed a series of lower highs and lower lows, confirming the bearish sentiment.
The recent bounce from the $1.59 support has pushed the price back up to around $1.98, which is currently encountering resistance at the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement level ($1.96).
Key resistance levels to watch include:
- 38.20% Fibonacci at $1.96
- 50.00% Fibonacci at $2.08
- 61.80% Fibonacci at $2.20
Meanwhile, if bearish pressure resumes, support can be expected at:
- The recent low at $1.59 (0.00% Fibonacci)
- The lower boundary of the descending channel around $1.50
XRPUSD Technical Analysis
The chart shows that the 100 SMA (blue line) is positioned above the 200 SMA (red line), which typically indicates underlying bullish momentum. However, the price is currently trading below both moving averages, suggesting that bearish pressure remains significant in the short term.
The 100 SMA is currently acting as dynamic resistance around the $2.08 level, coinciding with the 50.00% Fibonacci retracement. A decisive break above this level could signal stronger bullish momentum, while failure to overcome this resistance could trigger another leg down.
The Stochastic oscillator shows an upward movement, suggesting that buying momentum is currently in play. The indicator is approaching the overbought region, which means the current bullish momentum might soon lose steam. Traders should watch for a potential reversal or a bearish crossover in the Stochastic as a sign that sellers might regain control.
The MACD indicator displays improving momentum with green histogram bars forming and the MACD line crossing above the signal line. This bullish crossover supports the case for a potential short-term rally. However, the MACD remains below the zero line, indicating that the broader trend still favors the bears.
XRPUSD Price Outlook
XRPUSD appears to have formed a descending channel pattern, with price consistently respecting both the upper and lower boundaries. The recent bounce from the lower boundary suggests that this pattern remains valid, and traders might expect price to continue within this channel in the near term.
If buyers manage to push the price above the 38.20% Fibonacci level decisively, the next target would be the 50.00% retracement at $2.08, which also aligns with the 100 SMA. A break above this level could extend the recovery toward the 61.80% Fibonacci at $2.20.
Conversely, if sellers regain control and push the price below the recent low at $1.59, we could see an acceleration of the downtrend toward the next psychological support at $1.50 or even lower.
Longer-Term Outlook
From a broader perspective, XRPUSD remains in a larger downtrend as evidenced by the descending channel formation. For a genuine trend reversal to be confirmed, the price would need to break above the upper boundary of this channel and establish a higher high above the $2.20 level.
Traders should remain cautious as the current bounce might simply be a corrective move within the prevailing downtrend. The sustainability of any recovery would largely depend on XRP’s ability to reclaim the 50.00% and 61.80% Fibonacci retracement levels in the coming sessions.
With the current technical setup, risk-averse traders might consider waiting for clearer signals and taking cues from market headlines before establishing new positions, while more aggressive traders could look for short-term long opportunities with tight stop losses below the recent lows.
