XRP has been moving within a defined channel over the past few weeks, showing a series of higher lows that could signal building bullish momentum. After testing support around the lower boundary, price has broken lower and appears to be making an attempt to retest the broken channel bottom.
The 4-hour chart shows XRPUSD oscillating between support near the 50.00 level and resistance around the 100.00 mark. This range-bound movement has created a series of peaks and troughs, with the most recent price action showing a bounce from support and moving toward the upper boundary.
The Fibonacci retracement levels of the previous downswing suggest potential resistance at the 61.8% level around 85.00, which aligns with previous reaction points on the chart. A break above this level could pave the way for a test of the 78.6% Fib at 92.00 before potentially challenging the 100.00 psychological resistance.
Bears Regaining Control
Technical indicators are showing a shift in momentum. The moving averages display a bullish configuration, with the shorter-term 100 SMA (blue) crossing above the 200 SMA (orange), indicating that the path of least resistance is currently to the upside. However, the gap between these indicators remains relatively narrow, suggesting that bullish conviction isn’t overwhelmingly strong yet.
Stochastic is climbing from the oversold territory, showing that buyers are regaining control after the recent dip. This oscillator has room to rise before reaching overbought conditions, which could allow the ongoing rally to extend in the near term. Similarly, the MACD shows a positive divergence from its signal line, reinforcing the bullish bias.
XRPUSD Price Scenarios
If XRPUSD can sustain momentum above the 85.00 level, we could see a push toward the recent swing highs and potentially beyond the 100.00 mark. The formation of higher lows suggests accumulation, which could fuel a significant breakout if volume increases on the upside moves.
However, caution is warranted as the price approaches the upper boundary of the range. Previous attempts to break this level have been met with selling pressure, and reversal candlesticks forming near the 100.00 level could indicate another rejection. In this scenario, XRPUSD might retreat to test the mid-range support around 75.00 or potentially the lower boundary near 50.00 again.
From a fundamental perspective, XRPUSD continues to be influenced by broader crypto market sentiment and developments in Ripple’s ongoing regulatory situation. The recent strength in Bitcoin has provided some tailwind for altcoins, including XRP, though market participants remain cautious given the heightened volatility across the cryptocurrency sector.
Traders should watch for decisive breakouts from the current range, particularly on increased volume, to confirm the next directional move. Price trends on bitcoin and other top altcoins could also influence XRPUSD trends, along with initial interest after the launch of XRP futures-based ETFs.
