XRP recently fell through a short-term ascending trend line support and the key $2.500 mark to further signal fading upside momentum. The cryptocurrency is currently trading at $2.412, having bounced off a crucial support level at the swing low around $2.351.
Critical Support Levels
For now price has shown signs of stabilization and is attempting to form a base for a potential recovery.
Key Fibonacci levels that are likely to act as resistance during any recovery include:
- 38.2% retracement at $2.470, which aligns with a previous support zone
- 50% retracement at $2.507, coinciding with a short-term resistance level
- 61.8% retracement at $2.544, which served as a consolidation area during the recent downtrend
The longer-term ascending trendline that has supported the price since early May remains intact, suggesting that the broader uptrend could resume if the current bounce gains traction.
Technical Indicators And Moving Averages
The 100 SMA (blue line) has crossed below the 200 SMA (red line), which typically signals bearish momentum. However, the price is currently attempting to climb back above these moving averages, which could indicate a shift in market sentiment if successful.
Both moving averages are sloping upward despite the recent price decline, suggesting that the longer-term bias remains bullish. The current price position just above the 100 SMA could provide dynamic support for further advances.
The stochastic oscillator in the lower panel has recently formed a bullish crossover from near the oversold area, indicating increasing buying momentum. This technical signal often precedes price recoveries and suggests that sellers may be losing control in the short term.
Meanwhile, the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicator in the middle panel shows the blue line crossing above the orange signal line, forming a bullish crossover. The histogram bars are transitioning from red to green, further confirming the potential shift in momentum to the upside.
The volume profile (shown by the green and red bars in the middle panel) indicates diminishing selling volume during the recent downtrend, with small green volume bars appearing during the current bounce. For the recovery to be considered valid, an increase in buying volume would be needed to support the price advance.
If XRP can break above the immediate resistance at the 38.2% Fibonacci level ($2.470), the recovery could extend toward the 50% level at $2.507. A move above this would target the 61.8% level at $2.544, potentially signaling a resumption of the broader uptrend.
Conversely, if the price fails to sustain above the current levels and drops back below the ascending trendline and 0% Fibonacci level ($2.351), it could signal a continuation of the downtrend with potential targets at $2.300 and possibly $2.200 levels.
Traders should closely monitor the emerging volume patterns and the ability of the price to reclaim the key Fibonacci levels to confirm whether this bounce is the beginning of a sustained recovery or merely a correction within the short-term downtrend.
