Key Points
- Bitcoin [BTC] is on a downtrend after losing the $92,000-support level, with selling pressure being dominant.
- Short-term holders are experiencing losses while medium to long-term holders are showing signs of confidence.
Bitcoin’s Downtrend and Selling Pressure
At the time of writing, Bitcoin [BTC] was experiencing a downtrend, having lost the $92,000-support level in the final week of February. The OBV technical indicators suggested that selling pressure was the dominant force, implying potential further losses.
The apparent demand for Bitcoin has been decreasing since December, as pointed out by analyst Darkfost on CryptoQuant. The apparent demand ratio fell below zero towards the end of February, coinciding with the loss of the $92k support, and it has remained negative since.
Short-term Bearishness and HODLer Confidence
Short-term holders (STHs), defined as whale holders with a holding period of under 155 days, experienced unrealized losses in the final week of February as the price maintained its downtrend. The STH whales’ unrealized losses peaked on 11 March, reaching a staggering $17.52 billion, indicating potential further selling to protect against greater losses.
However, the sum coin age distribution, which analyzes the age of Bitcoin’s unspent transaction output [UTXO], showed a different picture for medium to long-term holders. Since late January, the 1 month-18-month age bands have generally seen increased holding and accumulation behavior, indicating a positive sign.
While recent, large BTC buyers were deep underwater, and there was a lack of immediate buying pressure to absorb the supply, medium to long-term holders appeared to retain some confidence, based on the SCA distribution.
Despite this, until the short-term pressure eases, Bitcoin could potentially see another price drop below $80k.
