Key Points
- Bitcoin is predicted to rally by 40% before reaching its cycle top, according to a crypto analyst.
- The Bitcoin Rainbow Chart and Fibonacci extension levels show optimistic targets for the current cycle.
Bitcoin [BTC] has seen a rise in accumulation addresses, indicating a growing HODL mentality among investors. As of 2024, Bitcoin addresses holding a minimum of 10 BTC and never having an outflow accounted for 1.5 million coins. Currently, these addresses hold 2.9 million coins.
The Bitcoin Rainbow Chart offers highly optimistic forecasts for the current cycle, suggesting a target of $288k or higher. However, historical patterns suggest that a cycle top could be closer to $100k this time.
Bitcoin’s Potential 40% Rally
Crypto analyst CryptoBullet recently noted that the weekly MACD formed a bullish crossover for the first time since October 2023. This event was followed by a rally of 172% within five months.
This rally, however, occurred before the Bitcoin halving event. The question now is whether similar gains can be expected, or if the next upward move would result in a lower high on the MACD, signaling the end of the bull run.
CryptoBullet leans towards the latter scenario. He suggests that a multi-month consolidation followed by a bullish MACD crossover after a vertical rally is unlikely to result in triple-digit percentage gains. Instead, he believes a 40% move higher is a more reasonable target.
Predicting Bitcoin’s Future Targets
Historical trends don’t always repeat. For instance, the 2017-18 bull run saw a 617% return following a weekly MACD bullish crossover, while the 2020 one saw a 468% move. The 2023 crossover yielded a 172% return but occurred before the halving date.
In 2019 and 2020, Bitcoin rallied 190% from the $3.2k lows set 18 months before the halving. It’s possible that the pre-halving run that BTC experienced could be surpassed, and CryptoBullet’s 40% price extension target for the next leg could be incorrect.
Nonetheless, a 40% price extension appears to be a reasonable expectation at present. This projection aligns well with the Fibonacci extension levels plotted on the weekly chart above.
Please note that the information provided does not constitute financial, investment, trading, or any other type of advice and is solely the writer’s opinion.
