Key Points
- President Trump’s crypto executive order could disrupt the traditional four-year crypto market cycle.
- Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan predicts Bitcoin’s price could exceed $200,000 in 2025 due to ETFs and institutional adoption.
Matt Hougan, the Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, suggests that the recent crypto executive order from President Donald Trump could disrupt the established four-year cycle of boom and bust in the crypto market. This change in regulation could challenge the accepted market pattern and potentially alter investors’ approach to digital assets.
With increasing speculation around Trump’s impact on the crypto industry, this move could signal a shift in market dynamics. It might diverge from historical trends and reshape expectations for the future of cryptocurrencies.
Understanding Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle
Historically, Bitcoin (BTC) has followed a predictable four-year cycle, consisting of three years of significant gains followed by a substantial correction. Hougan states that this pattern has remained consistent, with 2023 and 2024 delivering impressive returns, setting the stage for another strong year in 2025.
However, some investors are beginning to question whether 2026 could bring a market reset. While many attribute the cycle to Bitcoin’s halving events, Hougan suggests that broader market psychology and speculative behavior, shaped by key industry events, play a more significant role.
Origins and Future of the Cycle
Hougan explains that the current mainstream crypto cycle originated from the market turmoil of 2022, marked by the collapse of firms like FTX, Three Arrows Capital, and Celsius. The turning point arrived on 10 March 2023, when Grayscale secured an initial victory in its legal battle against the SEC, paving the way for spot Bitcoin ETFs.
The launch of these ETFs in January 2024 attracted institutional investors, driving Bitcoin’s price from approximately $22,000 to over $100,000 within a year, signifying crypto’s shift into the mainstream.
While regulatory shifts and political developments in Washington favor long-term crypto growth, their full impact may take years to materialize. Hougan notes that if these effects are only felt by 2026, it raises the question of whether another “crypto winter” in 2025 would align with past market cycles.
While the crypto market continues to evolve, Bitwise’s CIO believes the traditional four-year cycle is not entirely behind us. As the bull market progresses, increasing leverage could still lead to corrections. However, with the industry’s growing maturity, he expects these downturns to be less severe and shorter in duration, compared to previous cycles.
Despite the volatility, the resilience of the crypto space may help cushion future pullbacks, marking a shift in how market cycles play out.
