Key Points
- Bitcoin’s historical price patterns during U.S. election cycles suggest a possible surge towards $139,000.
- The MVRV ratio indicates that Bitcoin is not yet overvalued, hinting at further upside.
Bitcoin’s impressive performance since the U.S. Presidential election on November 5th mirrors historical price patterns.
Historically, U.S. elections have resulted in significant gains for Bitcoin (BTC), and if this trend continues, it could rally to $139,000.
Bitcoin’s Election Cycle Performance
According to analyst TechDev on X, BTC traded at $69,400 on election day.
Based on the gains observed during the 2012, 2016, and 2020 elections, the price could potentially see a 4.51x increase to $139,180 by 2025.
At the moment, Bitcoin is trading at $98,800, reflecting a 42% increase since election day.
Its market capitalization is also approaching $2 trillion.
As bullish sentiment continues to grow, it remains to be seen whether Bitcoin will follow previous cycles or diverge from the pattern.
Bitcoin’s Weekly Chart Analysis
An examination of Bitcoin’s weekly chart suggests that the rally, which began during the election week, might persist.
After the November 2020 elections, BTC embarked on an uptrend that propelled it from around $13,700 to the 2021 ATH of $64,800 in less than six months.
A similar rally, initiated during the 2024 election week, is currently in progress, and if the bullish momentum persists, the price could surpass $120,000 by April 2025.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) supports this prediction.
This indicator had a value of 77 at the time of writing, suggesting that BTC is not yet overbought.
Therefore, despite the recent surge, Bitcoin has not yet reached its peak, leaving room for additional growth.
Bitcoin’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio also suggests further gains.
With a current value of 2.7, the MVRV ratio indicates that BTC is not yet overvalued.
An MVRV ratio of 2.7 also suggests that Bitcoin is still in the early stages of a bull run.
Despite setting consecutive ATH records, it has yet to find a local top.
Traders should be wary of an MVRV climb beyond 3.7, as this would suggest that the coin has become overvalued.
The last time the MVRV ratio indicated that Bitcoin was overvalued was in early 2021, a few months after the 2020 elections.
As Bitcoin approaches another ATH above $100,000, Google Trends data reveals a high level of fear of missing out (FOMO) among retail traders.
Search activity for the term “Bitcoin” is at its highest level in over a year.
A score of 100 on Google Trends indicates peak interest in Bitcoin and could also suggest that the retail market is in a state of euphoria.
However, given the early signs of a Bitcoin bull market, this score could also indicate increasing adoption.
