Key Points
- Bitcoin’s price could potentially drop to $70K, warns BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes.
- Chris Burniske, partner at crypto VC Placeholder, views the current pullback as a typical mid-bull run reset.
Bitcoin [BTC] has once again touched its range-lows of $91k, marking the fourth time it has done so in 2025.
This extends its losses to 16% from its record high of $109.5K in January.
Future Predictions for BTC
Arthur Hayes, Founder of BitMEX and CIO at crypto fund Maelstrom, suggests that the troubles for BTC may not be over.
In a recent X (formerly Twitter) post, Hayes predicted that BTC could drop to $70K due to an unattractive CME Futures ‘yield’, which could lead to large funds unwinding.
Hayes shared a chart showing that the current short-term U.S. treasuries were yielding 4.3%.
However, the BTC CME basis has declined post-U.S. elections, and the ETH CME trade offered comparatively outsized returns.
Analysts’ Take on BTC’s Performance
Last week, K33 Research analyst Vetle Lunde noted that the CME BTC Futures basis (monthly) had dropped to pre-bull market levels seen in late 2023.
This basis is the difference between the BTC Futures and spot index prices, with a high positive number suggesting bullish sentiment, while a declining or negative number indicates muted or negative sentiment.
Meanwhile, Bitfinex analysts linked BTC’s struggles to macro uncertainty, which also affected the U.S. equity market.
They noted that the S&P 500 faltering dampened risk appetite across the board, including BTC.
Despite the fears and sell-off, Chris Burniske, a partner at crypto VC Placeholder, maintained that the pullback was a typical mid-bull run reset seen in 2021.
He stated, “In the middle of 2021, $BTC drew down 56%…You can come up with all the reasons for why this cycle is different, but the mid-bull reset we’re going through isn’t unprecedented.”
From a fundamental perspective, BTC’s overheated levels above 2 on the Market Value to Realized Value ratio (MVRV), which is a similar pattern to the early 2024 local top.
If history repeats, a cycle top could be observed if the MVRV taps 3.
However, losing the $91K-$90K support held for the past three months would change the market structure for the king-coin.
