Key Points
- Ethereum’s long-term holders have shown more bullish conviction than Bitcoin’s, with dominance nearing 75%.
- ETH/BTC ratio indicates a potential pivot for Ethereum, despite recent market crash.
Ethereum’s long-term holders (LTH) have been demonstrating a stronger bullish conviction than their Bitcoin counterparts.
According to the analytics firm IntoTheBock, this market shift began in the early part of 2024 and intensified into 2025. During this period, the Ethereum LTH cohort increased its holdings and dominance to nearly 75%.
Bitcoin’s LTH Cohort
In contrast, Bitcoin’s LTH cohort has been consistently liquidating their holdings, reducing their dominance to less than 60%. The firm reported, “Currently, 74.7% of Ethereum addresses are long-term holders, significantly outpacing Bitcoin. This trend is likely to hold until Ethereum approaches its all-time high and holders start taking profits.”
The Ethereum price performance has been lagging behind Bitcoin since early 2024. Bitcoin surpassed its previous cycle high and topped $108K, making nearly every holder profitable.
Institutional Demand
Institutional demand for Ethereum and Bitcoin was slightly distorted as we moved into the new year. According to Soso Value data, Ethereum ETFs are on track to close the second week of outflows. This is in contrast to the demand seen in November when the products logged five consecutive weeks of inflows.
On the other hand, Bitcoin saw net inflows in the past two weeks. If this institutional demand trend continues, Bitcoin could outperform Ethereum on the price charts.
Another indicator, the Ethereum/Bitcoin ratio, indicates a potential pivot for Ethereum. This indicator tracks Ethereum’s relative price performance against Bitcoin. It dropped to a 4-year low of 0.30, highlighting Ethereum’s underperformance over that period.
Despite this, it formed a double bottom pattern, indicating a potential rebound and likely market shift in favor of Ethereum.
However, the recent market crash brought Ethereum down to its December lows above $3K. Ethereum could attempt a rebound from the $3K-$3.3K support zone, with the immediate target at $3.6K. This was the same outlook shared by some Ethereum traders on X (formerly Twitter).
Ethereum’s likely recovery could be further strengthened if it reclaimed the 50-day EMA.
