Ethereum has been trading within a large symmetrical triangle pattern since its all-time highs in 2022, with the price action showing a series of lower highs and higher lows.
However, the recent price action suggests that bearish momentum is gaining strength as ETH has broken below the ascending support trendline that had been intact since mid-2022.
The breach of this crucial support level around $2,600 indicates that the market structure might be shifting. Currently, ETH is trading at approximately $1,823, having already declined significantly from its recent swing high near $3,700 established in late 2024.
Key Ethereum Levels to Watch
A bounce off current ETHUSD levels could take price up to the top of the triangle close to the latest highs at $4,000 or at least until the middle at $3,000. Dynamic resistance at the moving averages could also hold closer to $2,500.
On the other hand, a break lower could trigger a selloff that’s the same height as the triangle formation, potentially taking ETHUSD to the lows around $1,000 or lower. Still, keep an eye out for quick short-term retracements that could attract more bears after a downside triangle break.
ETHUSD Technical Analysis
The 100-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) are offering important insights into Ethereum’s trend. While the 100 SMA (blue line) is still positioned above the 200 SMA (red line), the gap between them is narrowing rapidly, suggesting an imminent bearish crossover. This technical event typically signals a shift from a bullish to a bearish trend in the intermediate term.
Looking at momentum indicators, the Stochastic oscillator has been declining from overbought territory and is now approaching oversold conditions. This indicates strong selling pressure in the market.
Similarly, the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) has crossed below its signal line and is generating a bearish histogram, further confirming the negative momentum.
Ethereum Price Outlook
If current support levels fail to hold, Ethereum could extend its decline toward the lower boundary of a longer-term price channel. Reversal candlestick patterns like hammers or bullish engulfing patterns at current levels could indicate a potential bounce, but these would need confirmation from increased buying volume to be considered reliable signals.
Conversely, if Ethereum manages to regain ground above the broken trendline and reclaim the $2,600 level, it could signal that the recent breakdown was a false move. Such a scenario would likely see ETH targeting the upper boundary of the triangle pattern again, potentially retesting the $3,700 area in the coming months.
From a fundamental perspective, Ethereum’s price action may be influenced by the broader crypto market sentiment, which has recently turned cautious despite expectations of a crypto-friendly Trump administration. The market appears to be in a “show me” phase, where traders are waiting for concrete policy implementations rather than relying on speculative optimism.
Additionally, the recent pivot in Ethereum’s development focus and ongoing concerns about transaction fees during periods of network congestion may be weighing on investor sentiment in the short term.
For now, the technical structure suggests caution for ETH bulls, with the broken support trendline and bearish momentum indicators pointing to further potential downside. Traders should watch for a potential test of the $1,500-1,700 support zone, which could determine whether this is merely a correction within a larger bull cycle or the beginning of a more protracted bear market.
