Ethereum has been on a steady uptrend since late April, but the rally appears to be losing momentum as price encounters significant resistance near the $1,873 level.
The cryptocurrency recently carved out a bullish channel pattern on the short-term timeframe, with the upper boundary coinciding with the 0% Fibonacci retracement level, suggesting strong overhead resistance.
The Fibonacci retracement tool drawn from the recent swing low to high shows several key levels that could influence price action in the coming days. The 38.2% Fib at $1,819.84 is currently serving as initial support, while the 50% level at $1,803.37 and the 61.8% level at $1,786.91 represent deeper pullback zones should selling pressure intensify.
Currently, Ethereum is trading at approximately $1,846, having retreated from the recent high. The pullback appears orderly so far, suggesting this could be a healthy consolidation rather than the beginning of a deeper correction.
Technical Indicators Signal Caution
Looking at the moving averages, the 100 SMA (blue line) is positioned below the price action, providing dynamic support and confirming the bullish bias remains intact. This moving average has been supporting the uptrend since late April and could continue to act as a floor during pullbacks.
However, oscillators are beginning to flash warning signs. The stochastic indicator is turning lower from the overbought region, suggesting that bullish momentum is waning. This is typically a signal that buyers are exhausted and could lead to a period of consolidation or correction. The stochastic lines are not yet deeply oversold, indicating potential for further downside before renewed buying interest emerges.
The MACD appears to be flattening after a period of positive momentum, which aligns with the slowing upside movement in price. A potential bearish crossover in the MACD could trigger additional selling pressure in the near term.
Potential Ethereum Price Scenarios
The current price action suggests two likely scenarios for Ethereum in the coming days. In the bullish case, if Ethereum manages to find solid support at the 38.2% Fibonacci level ($1,819.84) and the stochastic begins turning higher from this zone, we could see a renewed push toward the recent highs.
A decisive break above the $1,873 resistance could open the path toward the psychological $1,900 level and potentially extend the rally toward $2,000.
Alternatively, if selling pressure intensifies and Ethereum breaks below the 38.2% Fib, the next key support levels to watch would be the 50% retracement at $1,803.37 and the 61.8% level at $1,786.91. The latter coincides with previous resistance turned support, making it a particularly significant level. Should price dip to this region, it would likely present an attractive opportunity for buyers looking to enter at a discount.
Traders should monitor volume patterns and potential reversal candlesticks at key Fibonacci levels for early signs of trend continuation or reversal. Additionally, keeping an eye on Bitcoin’s price action could provide supplementary context, as the two largest cryptocurrencies often display correlated movements, especially during significant market shifts.
