Cardano (ADAUSD) has been trading within a descending triangle on its daily timeframe, suggesting that sellers have maintained control following the significant rally that began in October 2024.
Price action shows ADA recently encountered strong resistance at the upper boundary of this pattern, resulting in a rejection and continuation of the prevailing downtrend.
Currently, ADA/USD is hovering around the $0.6525 level, which represents a critical juncture for the cryptocurrency. The price has retraced substantially from its December 2024 peak, forming a series of lower highs and lower lows that confirm the bearish market structure.
Key Cardano Levels to Watch
Looking at significant price levels, ADA faces immediate resistance at the descending trendline around the $0.7500 area, followed by stronger resistance at the $0.8000 psychological level, which coincides with previous support-turned-resistance.
On the downside, the $0.6000 level offers minor support, but the major support zone lies at $0.3099, which represents the lower boundary of the trading range established over several months prior to the October 2024 surge. A breakdown below this level could trigger accelerated selling pressure.
ADAUSD Technical Analysis
The moving averages are providing significant technical insight. The 100 SMA (blue line) is now above current price levels and beginning to slope downward, while the 200 SMA (red line) remains below but is gradually rising.
This positioning indicates that immediate selling pressure is present, though longer-term momentum hasn’t completely shifted to bearish territory. The potential bearish crossover where the 100 SMA crosses below the 200 SMA would confirm strengthening downside momentum.
Stochastic oscillator readings show the indicator moving in the middle range, reflecting neither overbought nor oversold conditions. However, the recent peaks have been forming lower highs, suggesting diminishing buying pressure. This oscillator appears to be turning lower, indicating that sellers may soon regain control of the market direction.
The MACD indicator displays a concerning signal for bulls as the MACD line and signal line both trend downward with decreasing histogram values. This configuration typically precedes extended downside movements and confirms the weakness in upward momentum.
Cardano Price Outlook
If the current support around $0.6525 holds, we might see a corrective bounce toward the 100 SMA, which could offer an opportunity for traders to establish short positions. However, long green candlesticks closing above the 100 SMA would suggest that bulls are regaining control and could push prices back toward the upper boundary of the descending triangle.
Conversely, continued weakness with closes below $0.6000 would likely lead to a test of lower support levels, potentially extending the decline toward the critical $0.3099 zone. The absence of visible bullish reversal patterns suggests that downside risks remain elevated in the near term.
From a fundamental perspective, Cardano’s price action appears influenced by the broader cryptocurrency market sentiment, which has been cautious following recent regulatory developments. While the market still maintains optimism about crypto-friendly policies under the current administration, the lack of concrete regulatory frameworks continues to create uncertainty.
Traders should watch for potential catalysts from upcoming Cardano network upgrades or broader market developments that could influence the current technical setup. For now, the path of least resistance appears downward, with key technical levels providing important reference points for potential trade entries and risk management.
