Arthur Hayes, the controversial crypto visionary and BitMEX co-founder, is making waves with a prediction that combines short-term pain with long-term explosive gains.
While Bitcoin hovers near all-time highs, Hayes warns of an impending correction to $90,000 before what he calls an inevitable 10x rally to $1 million. This isn’t typical crypto hype—it’s a calculated forecast based on complex Treasury operations and fiscal dynamics that most investors are completely overlooking.
The immediate threat to Bitcoin’s price comes from an obscure but powerful mechanism: the Treasury General Account (TGA) refill.
Following the lifting of the debt ceiling, the US Treasury must issue approximately $500 billion in bonds to restore its cash reserves from the current $364 billion to the target $850 billion. This massive bond issuance acts like a financial vacuum, sucking liquidity out of markets and depriving risk assets like Bitcoin of their primary fuel—excess dollars.
US Funding Dilemma
Hayes explains this isn’t a market crash or the start of a bear cycle, but rather a temporary liquidity drought. “If the TGA refill proves to be dollar liquidity negative, then the downside is $90,000 to $95,000,” he states. However, if markets absorb the bond issuance smoothly, Bitcoin could remain range-bound in the $100,000s without breaking its $112,000 all-time high before September.
The timing revolves around Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium in August, which Hayes views as a potential inflection point. Until then, he expects markets to drift sideways or slightly lower as the Treasury operations play out. This creates what Hayes sees as a strategic opportunity—a final shakeout before the real fireworks begin.
What makes Hayes’ prediction to $1M particularly intriguing is his focus on fiscal rather than monetary policy. While most investors wait for the Federal Reserve to signal quantitative easing or rate cuts, Hayes argues they’re watching the wrong playbook.
Bold Bitcoin Bet
Hayes’ long-term bullish Bitcoin thesis rests on a staggering figure: $10.1 trillion in potential liquidity that could flood into Treasury bills through what he calls “the BBC’s policies”—referring to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s strategy.
The mechanism works like this: if too-big-to-fail banks are allowed to issue stablecoins and the Fed stops paying interest on excess reserves, a massive amount of capital would flow into Treasury bonds.
This structural shift could propel Bitcoin toward $1 million within a few years, Hayes predicts, without requiring any dramatic Fed pivot or official quantitative easing announcement. The key insight is that Bitcoin will front-run these liquidity changes rather than wait for formal policy signals. “You will miss out on bitcoin pumping 10x to $1 million or the Nasdaq 100 spiking 5x to 100,000 by 2028,” Hayes warns investors waiting for clearer Fed guidance.
The political dimension adds another layer to Hayes’ analysis. With Republicans potentially ramping up spending before the 2026 midterms, fiscal stimulus could accelerate even without monetary accommodation. This creates a unique environment where government spending drives asset prices higher through Treasury operations rather than traditional central bank actions.
The implication is that volatility and temporary corrections like the predicted $90,000 dip are simply the price of admission to what Hayes sees as a generational wealth-building opportunity. For investors bold enough to navigate the short-term turbulence, the potential rewards could be life-changing.
