Key Points
- Bitcoin’s [BTC] next move could be influenced by the upcoming Fed rate cut decision.
- Analysts predict a possible BTC uptick to $103K/104K, followed by a retreat to lower levels.
Bitcoin [BTC] has been maintaining its stance above $100K in recent days. The cryptocurrency’s future direction, however, may be influenced by the Federal Reserve’s upcoming rate cut decision.
This comes in the wake of last week’s U.S. inflation and labor data, which led to the market projecting a 96% likelihood of another 25bps interest cut during the next Fed rate decision on December 18th.
Projected BTC Movements
BTC trader CrypNuevo suggests that a liquidity hunt at $103K/104K is the most probable next move for BTC, based on recent trends. He notes significant short liquidations at $103K and suggests it may be the right time to target them.
At the time of writing, there were still substantial leveraged short positions at $103K-$104K, lending credibility to CrypNuevo’s projection.
BTC has been tightly consolidating around the mid-range of its ascending channel on the 12-hour chart. The $103K/$104K target is approximately 2% from the mid-range, while the upper channel target of $107K is 5% from the mid-range level.
However, the $107K level has less liquidity and may not attract as much price action as the $103K level. If this is the case, BTC could hit the $103K/$104K targets, driven by liquidity sweep, and then retreat to lower levels.
The channel’s range-low has halted previous retracements, and the potential pullback could ease at $97K, after which BTC could continue its range-bound movement.
Global Longs Indicator
The global longs indicator from Hyblock supports the likelihood of a slip to the range-low after reaching $103K. This oscillator typically rises when BTC falls and drops when BTC pumps.
At the time of writing, the indicator was heading towards its bottom and could reverse, indicating a likely BTC retracement and bull trap.
In summary, BTC could push slightly above the mid-range to liquidate short positions at $103K/$104K levels before targeting leveraged longs at the channel’s range-lows near $97K. However, a breakout on either side would invalidate this range-bound outlook.
Please note that the information presented does not constitute financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice and is solely the writer’s opinion.
