Key Points
- Bitcoin’s short-term holders are experiencing a similar loss level to that of August 2024.
- The MVRV ratio and STH Realized Price provide insights into market sentiment and potential reversals.
Bitcoin, also known as BTC, has always been a significant factor in shaping investment trends. As of March 2025, the cryptocurrency’s price movements mirrored past cycles, specifically the downturn of August 2024, while diverging from the more severe declines of 2021.
Short-term holders accumulated Bitcoin at 84,000 USD, despite a Short-Term Holder (STH) Realized Price of 92,780 USD. This marked a crucial turning point. Many investors entered late in the cycle, purchasing at inflated levels above 90,000 USD.
Understanding Market Indicators
The analysis of BTC’s supply age bands and MVRV metrics, provides valuable insights into the ongoing market structure. Understanding these indicators is crucial for traders navigating the delicate balance between bearish dominance and potential bullish reversals.
The STH-MVRV chart showed Bitcoin’s price accumulation at 84,000 USD, significantly lower than the STH Realized Price of 92,780 USD. This discrepancy indicated that many short-term holders were operating at a loss, similar to the pattern in August 2024 when Bitcoin fell to 70,000 USD before rebounding.
Bitcoin’s Liquidity Implications
Furthermore, BTC’s supply age bands, spanning from 2012 to 2025, provide further clarity on market trends. This distribution shift suggests long-term holders retained a strong grip on supply, while newer coins aged as the market matured.
By early 2025, the 6-12 month bands stabilized at 3 million BTC, indicating that a significant portion of Bitcoin had transitioned to long-term holders. If Bitcoin surpasses 100,000 USD, the younger supply bands could experience renewed activity, pushing fresh liquidity into the market.
Market Sentiment and Newcomer Behavior
Bitcoin’s MVRV ratio, combined with the STH Realized Price, provides insight into market sentiment and potential reversals. From 2020 to 2025, Bitcoin’s MVRV fluctuated between 0.5 and 2.5.
Historically, MVRV values above 2.0 have signaled overvaluation, often preceding corrections, while values closer to 1.0 indicate accumulation opportunities. As Bitcoin’s STH Realized Price surged from 40,000 USD in 2021 to 92,780 USD in 2025, it reflected increasing market optimism.
New traders, often influenced by media hype and influencer-driven speculation, bought Bitcoin at 95,000 USD, disregarding MVRV warnings at 1.5. If MVRV reclaims 2.5 alongside increased buying volume, Bitcoin could retest 120,000 USD. However, if it drops toward 1.0, it may signal a deeper decline, potentially revisiting the 70,000 USD range.
