Key Points
- Bitcoin’s Open Interest hits a new all-time high at $45.8 billion, indicating a strong bullish sentiment.
- The NUPL metric suggests that the current bull run is still in its early stages.
Bitcoin’s Open Interest Reaches New Heights
Bitcoin [BTC] has reached a new all-time high as the U.S. presidential election concluded, with Donald Trump emerging as the winner.
Historically, November and December have been bullish months for crypto. However, CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju suggests that gains might not exceed 30%-40%, unlike the 368% increase seen in the previous cycle.
Despite this, Bitcoin’s Open Interest set a new record at $45.8 billion, and Bitcoin itself also hit a new ATH at $76.4k. These figures indicate a strong bullish sentiment.
Rising Prices and Open Interest
Over the past three years, Open Interest has seen steady growth. The rally from October 2023 to March 2024 increased the OI from $11.9 billion to $38 billion. These highs were surpassed on October 17th and then again on November 7th.
These rising prices and Open Interest suggest a healthy bullish sentiment. However, traders should be aware of potential high volatility during the price discovery phase and be prepared for deep pullbacks.
Currently, some short sellers seem willing to trade against the bullish momentum BTC has shown over the past three weeks. High leverage liquidations levels were observed at $75,740, with similar sized long liquidations present at $73,205. A drop toward $70k could potentially be more detrimental than a continued uptrend.
NUPL Indicates Early Bull Run Stage
The Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL) stood at 0.559 at press time, a figure similar to levels seen in December 2016 and November 2020 when Bitcoin was valued at $900 and $15.4k respectively.
The NUPL has reached highs of 0.793 and 0.748 in past cycles. A reading around 0.7 would indicate that a large portion of investors are in profit and the bull run may be nearing its end. However, there is still a long way to go before reaching that point, questioning whether BTC will top after just a 30%-40% increase.
