Bitcoin has been navigating a well-defined ascending channel on the 4-hour timeframe, recently breaking above the upper boundary before experiencing a pullback.
Price action now suggests a critical phase as BTC retests key Fibonacci retracement levels that could determine the next directional move.
Fibonacci Decision Points
After establishing what appears to be a double top formation near the $97,693 level (0.00% Fibonacci retracement), Bitcoin has pulled back and is now testing the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level around $96,035. The current price of $96,638 indicates buyers are attempting to defend this zone, but the rejection from the recent high suggests selling pressure remains significant.
The 50% Fibonacci level at $95,523 serves as the next support level if the current zone fails to hold. This area coincides with previous price congestion, potentially adding to its significance as a support zone.
Should sellers gain further momentum, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $93,011 represents a critical “line in the sand” that, if broken, could signal a deeper correction toward the 100% retracement level at $93,352.
The channel structure visible on the chart suggests Bitcoin remains in a longer-term uptrend despite the recent pullback. Price has consistently respected the channel boundaries, with the recent touch of the upper boundary serving as a natural profit-taking point for traders who entered near the lower boundary of the channel.
Mixed Technical Indicators
The moving average configuration shows the 100 SMA (blue line) positioned above the 200 SMA (red line), confirming that the path of least resistance remains to the upside despite the current pullback. This positive alignment suggests that the longer-term bullish structure remains intact, even as price experiences short-term volatility.
Looking at momentum indicators, the stochastic oscillator appears to be turning lower from overbought territory, suggesting that bearish momentum may be building in the short term. This aligns with the recent rejection from the double top and could indicate that further consolidation or pullback is likely before any substantial upside move can take place.
The MACD indicator (visible in the lower panel of the chart) shows the blue line crossing below the orange line, potentially signaling weakening bullish momentum. However, the histogram bars appear to be transitioning from red to green, indicating that selling pressure may be diminishing.
With Bitcoin currently trading at $96,638, traders should watch for several key scenarios to unfold. A decisive close above the 38.2% Fibonacci level ($96,035) would suggest bulls remain in control and could push prices back toward the recent highs. Formation of reversal candlestick patterns near the current level could indicate that the pullback has found support and that the longer-term uptrend is ready to resume.
Alternatively, a break below the 50% retracement level ($95,523) could trigger a deeper correction toward the 61.8% level ($93,011). The $93,000-$94,000 range represents a significant support zone, coinciding with the lower boundary of the ascending channel. A break below this area would significantly damage the bullish structure and potentially signal a more substantial trend reversal.
