The competition between Bitcoin and gold is tilting decidedly in favor of the cryptocurrency, according to JPMorgan analysts in their latest published note as shared by The Block.
As Bitcoin trades near $104,000, just 5% below its all-time high, the financial giant’s research team anticipates the digital asset will continue outperforming its traditional counterpart through the remainder of 2025, driven by a powerful confluence of crypto-specific catalysts.
“We expect the year-to-date zero-sum game between gold and Bitcoin to extend to the remainder of the year, but are biased towards crypto-specific catalysts creating more upside for Bitcoin over gold into the second half of the year,” wrote the analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou.
Institutional Forces Driving BTC
The investment landscape has undergone a notable shift in recent weeks, with market data showing Bitcoin rising 18% since late April while gold has declined nearly 8% from its peak. This reversal follows a period from mid-February through mid-April when gold was ascending at Bitcoin’s expense.
JPMorgan attributes Bitcoin’s resurgence to several key developments significantly reshaping the institutional infrastructure around digital assets.
Corporate treasury allocations continue to expand, with Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) aggressively pursuing its goal to raise $42 billion for Bitcoin purchases by 2027, having already secured 60% of its original target. Japanese firm Metaplanet has similarly added Bitcoin to its corporate treasury.
Perhaps more groundbreaking is the emerging trend of U.S. states embracing cryptocurrency. New Hampshire recently passed legislation permitting up to 5% of state reserves to be held in Bitcoin and gold, while Arizona’s digital asset reserve was established using funding through staking rewards and airdrops rather than taxpayer money.
“As the list grows, with other US states potentially considering adding Bitcoin to their strategic reserves, this could turn out to be a more sustained positive catalyst for Bitcoin,” the JPMorgan team noted.
Derivatives Market Maturity
The rapid maturation of crypto derivatives markets represents another pivotal advantage for Bitcoin over gold, according to the analysis. A wave of strategic acquisitions has strengthened the institutional framework around cryptocurrency trading, with Coinbase purchasing Deribit for $2.9 billion, Kraken acquiring futures platform NinjaTrader for $1.5 billion, and Gemini securing a license to offer derivatives throughout Europe.
The shifting investment flows between the assets tell the story clearly. Recent weeks have seen substantial outflows from gold ETFs like SPDR Gold Trust, while Bitcoin ETFs have experienced consistent inflows. This pattern extends to futures markets, where gold positions have contracted while Bitcoin exposure has expanded.
While gold has retreated from its April all-time high of $3,500 to approximately $3,230, Bitcoin has maintained strength near $103,800, positioning it for a potential run at its January record of nearly $109,000.
JPMorgan’s analysis suggests that while both assets benefited from the “debasement trade” late last year – where investors sought hedges against weakening fiat currencies – that dynamic has evolved into a zero-sum game in 2025, with one asset now typically rising at the other’s expense.
