Bitcoin appears to be losing steam after reaching highs near $105,729, as the cryptocurrency has formed a clear short-term retracement pattern on the daily chart.
The price is currently hovering around $102,514, sitting at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level ($101,218) calculated from the recent major uptrend. This level is serving as immediate support, with traders closely monitoring whether bulls can defend this zone.
Bitcoin could find additional stability at the key Fibonacci retracement zones, with the 50.0% level at $99,824 and the 61.8% level at $98,431 representing critical support areas to watch in case of further downside movement.
Additional Bitcoin Support
The ascending trendline that has supported Bitcoin since mid-2023 remains intact, suggesting the longer-term bullish structure hasn’t been compromised yet. However, the recent sideways consolidation closing in on the $100,000 psychological level indicates market indecision, with neither buyers nor sellers having a clear advantage at this juncture.
In context of the longer-term bullish trend, the cryptocurrency is still maintaining its position above the critical $93,920 level, which represents the previous resistance zone that has now turned into support. A decisive break below this level could signal a more significant trend reversal.
Looking at the moving averages, the blue MA (likely the 50-day) remains above the red MA (likely the 200-day), confirming that the longer-term trend still favors the bulls. However, the convergence between these moving averages appears to be narrowing, potentially signaling weakening momentum. The price remains above both moving averages for now, which should provide dynamic support on pullbacks.
Increased Selling Pressure
The stochastic oscillator at the bottom of the chart has recently turned downward from the overbought region, suggesting a potential increase in selling pressure. This oscillator has crossed below the 50 level, indicating bearish momentum might be gaining traction in the short term.
Meanwhile, the MACD indicator (shown in the middle panel) displays decreasing bullish momentum as the histogram bars are shrinking, potentially setting up for a bearish crossover if the current trajectory continues.
Traders should watch for price action around the current support zone between $98,431 (61.8% Fibonacci level) and $101,218 (38.2% Fibonacci level). A bounce from these levels accompanied by bullish candlestick patterns could indicate a resumption of the uptrend, potentially targeting new all-time highs above $105,729. Conversely, a breakdown below the ascending trendline and a close below $93,920 would suggest that bearish momentum is intensifying.
From a fundamental perspective, market participants continue to evaluate the potential impact of the Trump administration’s cryptocurrency policies, including the much-discussed strategic crypto reserve. However, the lack of concrete details from recent regulatory discussions has contributed to some uncertainty, possibly supporting the current consolidation phase.
As Bitcoin navigates this critical juncture, the price action over the coming days will be crucial in determining whether the longer-term uptrend remains viable or if a larger correction is due.
