Key Points
- Bitcoin’s demand indicators signal bearish pressure, with large holders reducing their positions and increasing selling pressure.
- Leveraged traders’ sentiment misalignment with market trends and increased stakeholder selling add to the bearish conditions.
Bitcoin’s [BTC] price fluctuations are a result of a complicated mix of demand, the sentiment of leveraged traders, and the actions of significant stakeholders. As BTC’s price fell from $84,600, many traders incorrectly predicted the market direction and took long positions at an inopportune time.
Simultaneously, holders of large amounts of Bitcoin decreased their positions, leading to an overall increase in selling pressure. Furthermore, demand indicators suggested one of 2025’s weakest periods, with new supply surpassing inactive supply.
Bitcoin’s Demand and Market Trends
The apparent demand for Bitcoin, indicated by the 30-day sum of daily block subsidies minus one-year inactive supply changes, suggested bearish pressure. Between 2 December 2024 and 10 March 2025, demand peaked at 105k BTC on 16 December 2024, when the price was $97.5k.
By 3 March 2025, demand had dropped to -100k BTC as the cryptocurrency fell to $80k. The 30-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of demand also fell from 105k BTC to 77.5k BTC, reinforcing this downward trend.
A shift from positive to negative demand occurred after mid-January 2025, with sustained negative demand taking hold by 17 February 2025. This shift suggested that new supply was outstripping the retention of inactive BTC, resulting in downward pressure on the price.
Stakeholders’ Selling and Bitcoin’s Future
Large Bitcoin holders accelerated selling, reinforcing the bearish market conditions. Over the past three months, wallets holding 100–1,000 BTC reduced their holdings by 50,625 BTC, decreasing their market share from 23.48% to 22.94%.
Similarly, wallets holding 10–100 BTC shed 7,062 BTC, reducing their share from 21.84% to 21.71%. This selling trend coincided with Bitcoin’s price decline from $97k to $84k between 21 January and 2 March.
Bitcoin’s future remains uncertain, with weak demand, misaligned trader sentiment, and large stakeholder selling shaping its trajectory. Demand dropped to -100K BTC on 3 March, reflecting market weakness.
Leveraged traders consistently misjudged trends, with sentiment shifts failing to align with price movements. Meanwhile, stakeholders offloaded 57,687 BTC, increasing downward pressure.
