Bitcoin continues to exhibit mixed signals as it rebounds from a shallow trend pullback, with key Fibonacci extension levels ahead that could determine whether the current uptrend resumes or further correction is in store.
The leading cryptocurrency is currently trading at $103,710, showing signs of recovery in another attempt to close above the latest $104,000 highs after testing support around the $100,000 psychological level.
Fibonacci Target Levels
The recent price action shows Bitcoin has formed a notable recovery pattern after pulling back from its latest surge. Currently, the cryptocurrency is approaching critical resistance levels that align with Fibonacci retracement levels of the previous decline. The 0.618 Fibonacci extension at $108,498 represents a significant barrier that bulls need to overcome to confirm trend continuation.
Looking at the chart, we can observe that Bitcoin has already closing in on the 0.382 Fibonacci level at $105,592. These Fibonacci levels are crucial for determining the strength of the current recovery. A decisive break above the 0.618 level could potentially open the path toward the 0.764 level at $110,296 and eventually to test the all-time highs.
However, failure to break above these resistance levels could lead to a retest of support at $100,887, with further potential downside toward the ascending trendline that has supported Bitcoin’s price since mid-2023. This longer-term trendline remains intact, suggesting the overall bullish market structure hasn’t been compromised despite recent pullbacks.
Technical Indicators Look Mixed
The moving average configuration shows the price trading above both the 100 and 200 SMAs on the hourly chart, which traditionally signals bullish sentiment. The 100 SMA positioned above the 200 SMA reaffirms that the path of least resistance remains to the upside, though the narrowing gap between these indicators suggests diminishing bullish momentum.
What’s particularly interesting is the oscillator behavior at the bottom of the chart. The stochastic indicator has recently started to turn lower from the upper regions, suggesting that bullish momentum might be waning. This could indicate a potential pullback before another leg higher.
Similarly, the MACD appears to be showing bearish divergence, with the blue line crossing below the orange signal line, potentially signaling short-term weakness ahead.
Bitcoin’s price action has been heavily influenced by market anticipation of crypto-friendly policies under the Trump administration. While the longer-term uptrend remains intact, disappointment over the lack of concrete details from recent regulatory discussions has introduced short-term volatility.
If Bitcoin can close decisively above the 0.618 Fibonacci level at $108,498, it would suggest that bulls have regained control and could potentially drive prices toward the previous all-time highs. However, reversal candlesticks forming at current price levels would likely indicate another leg down, potentially testing the psychological $100,000 level again.
Traders should watch for volume expansion as a confirmation of the next directional move, with particular attention to price action around the key Fibonacci levels identified. The $108,500 region represents the crucial battleground that will likely determine Bitcoin’s direction in the coming weeks.
