Bitcoin appears to be in a consolidation phase around the $103,000 level after its latest price surge, suggesting that bulls could be holding out for more catalysts. The cryptocurrency is showing resilience despite recent volatility, with price action suggesting potential for renewed momentum as critical technical levels come into play.
Bitcoin Price Structure
Bitcoin is currently trading around $102,860, maintaining a position above the psychologically important $100,000 threshold. Price has established a series of higher lows on the daily chart since mid-2023, forming an ascending support trend line that remains intact.
Looking at the chart, Bitcoin is trading above both the 100 SMA (blue line) and 200 SMA (red line), with the 100 SMA positioned above the 200 SMA, confirming that the path of least resistance remains to the upside. The 100 SMA is currently providing dynamic support around the $102,000 level, while the longer-term ascending trend line (black) offers additional support lower down.
However, a short-term double top pattern suggesting a potential downtrend appears to be forming around current consolidation levels, with a breakdown of $103,000 likely ushering in stronger bearish pressure for a larger correction.
Immediate resistance can be found at the recent high of $104,000, followed by the December 2024 high of $109,800. A break above the latter could set off a much steeper climb for BTC, which is already gaining additional institutional and government interest. On the downside, support is established at the $100,000 psychological level, followed by the 50% Fibonacci retracement at $93,450.
BTC Momentum Indicators
The oscillators present a mixed but slightly bearish short-term outlook. The stochastic indicator (blue and orange lines in the middle panel) is declining from the overbought territory, suggesting that bullish momentum may be temporarily exhausted. This indicates potential for a minor pullback or consolidation before the next significant move.
The lower indicator (purple line, likely RSI) is also showing a gradual decline while remaining in the neutral zone around 40-50, neither confirming strong bullish or bearish momentum at present.
Despite these short-term caution signals, the overall structure remains bullish as long as Bitcoin maintains support above the $100,000 psychological level and the longer-term ascending trend line. The cryptocurrency has repeatedly demonstrated resilience by bouncing from key support levels and maintaining its longer-term uptrend.
Market participants are closely watching developments around the Trump administration’s crypto policies, particularly after discussions about establishing a “strategic crypto reserve” as well as ongoing global trade negotiations. While the trade truce between the US and China was initially welcomed by risk rallies supporting bitcoin, the cryptocurrency appeared unable to sustain its gains while mirroring gold in its safe-haven slump.
Traders should monitor for potential bullish continuation signals above the $104,000 resistance level, which could reignite momentum toward testing the all-time highs. Conversely, a decisive break below the 100 SMA and $100,000 support could trigger a deeper selloff for the cryptocurrency, as this could spur additional profit-taking off longer-term holdings.
