Bitcoin has been consolidating within a tight range after its impressive rally from the March lows around $74,689, with price currently hovering near the $104,627 level.
The cryptocurrency appears to be testing a crucial support zone that coincides with multiple technical confluences, setting up what could be a decisive move in either direction.
The daily chart reveals that BTC/USD has still been respecting a long-term ascending trend line that connects the major lows since late 2024. This upward-sloping support has been instrumental in maintaining the broader bullish structure, though recent price action suggests some weakening momentum as shorter-term trend lines continue to be tested.
Major Retracement Zones
From a Fibonacci perspective, Bitcoin’s recent pullback from the highs around $110K has brought price action to some interesting retracement levels. The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement sits at $97,618, which could serve as the first line of defense for bulls looking to defend the uptrend.
A deeper correction could target the 50% retracement level at $93,240, which also aligns closely with the 100-day moving average dynamic support. The most significant support zone lies at the 61.8% Fibonacci level around $88,862, which would represent a more substantial pullback but could offer an attractive entry point for longer-term buyers.
The 100% retracement level at $74,689 marks the March lows and would likely signal a more serious breakdown in the bullish narrative if reached. However, this scenario appears less probable given the current technical setup and overall market structure.
Mixed Long-Term Outlook
The moving average configuration presents a mixed picture for Bitcoin’s near-term prospects. While the longer-term trend remains intact with higher lows being established, the recent consolidation has brought price closer to key moving average levels that could act as dynamic support or resistance.
The stochastic oscillator appears to be emerging from oversold territory, which typically suggests that selling pressure may be exhausting and a bounce could be imminent. This momentum shift often precedes relief rallies, especially when price is testing significant support zones.
Meanwhile, the MACD histogram shows signs of convergence, indicating that the recent bearish momentum may be losing steam. A potential bullish crossover in the MACD lines could provide additional confirmation that buyers are regaining control, particularly if it coincides with a successful defense of the current support confluence.
Looking ahead, a decisive break above the recent highs around $111,790 would likely target the psychological $120,000 level and potentially set the stage for BTC for new all-time highs. This could hinge on significant market developments in the near-term, as investors appear to be holding out for bigger catalysts that could sustain the May rally.
Conversely, a breakdown below the ascending trend line and Fibonacci support could open the door for a deeper correction toward the $88,000-$90,000 region, where stronger buying interest would be expected to emerge.
