Bitcoin is currently trading at $82,781, finding itself in a precarious position within a well-defined symmetrical triangle pattern that has been forming since early March.
This consolidation phase follows the double top formation that led to a significant decline from the $93,500 level, as price action continues to exhibit bearish characteristics in the short term.
The symmetrical triangle visible on the 4-hour chart suggests a period of indecision among market participants, with both buyers and sellers waiting for a decisive breakout.
The upper trendline connecting lower highs and the lower trendline connecting higher lows are converging, indicating that a significant move may be imminent. The current price is testing the lower boundary of this formation just above the $82,000 mark.
Key Bitcoin Levels to Watch
Key support levels to watch include:
- Current lower triangle boundary at approximately $82,000
- The psychological $80,000 level
Important resistance levels include:
- The 200 SMA around $84,000
- The 100 SMA near $86,000
- The upper triangle boundary at approximately $88,000
BTCUSD Technical Analysis
The 100 SMA (red line) is positioned above the 200 SMA (blue line), typically suggesting that the path of least resistance is to the upside. However, the gap between these two indicators has noticeably narrowed, potentially signaling an impending bearish crossover. Should the 200 SMA cross above the 100 SMA, this would further confirm the shift in momentum toward sellers.
Price is currently trading below both major moving averages, which are now acting as dynamic resistance levels. The 200 SMA is providing immediate resistance around the $84,000 region, while the 100 SMA offers additional resistance near $86,000.
The stochastic oscillator is moving downward from the overbought territory, indicating that bearish pressure is building. This suggests that selling momentum may be gaining traction as the oscillator heads toward the oversold region. The formation of lower highs in the stochastic also aligns with the bearish bias observed in price action.
The MACD indicator displays a bearish picture as well, with the MACD line (blue) crossing below the signal line (orange) and the histogram showing increasing negative momentum. This bearish crossover reinforces the potential for continued downside movement.
Bitcoin Price Outlook
If bitcoin breaks below the lower boundary of the symmetrical triangle, a measured move equal to the height of the triangle’s widest point could take prices toward the $76,000 level. This would also align with a retest of the March lows.
Alternatively, if bulls manage to defend the current support and push prices higher, the first significant challenge would be reclaiming territory above both moving averages. A daily close above the 100 SMA would be the first sign of potential trend reversal, while a break above the upper triangle boundary could signal a continuation of the longer-term uptrend.
From a broader perspective, bitcoin remains in a long-term uptrend as depicted in the weekly timeframe. The ascending trend line connecting the mid-2023 lows continues to provide structural support for the cryptocurrency. As long as price maintains above this long-term trendline, the bullish narrative remains valid despite the current short-term weakness.
Fundamental developments regarding crypto regulations under the Trump administration, especially the potential “strategic crypto reserve,” continue to offer background support. However, the market appears to be in a wait-and-see mode, requiring more concrete policy announcements to restore strong bullish momentum.
