Bitcoin continues to exhibit bearish momentum within a well-defined descending wedge, with the price currently testing the lower boundary around $76,000.
After breaking below key support levels, BTCUSD appears to be in a short-term downtrend with its lower highs and slightly lower lows inside a falling wedge formation.
The upper boundary of this wedge has consistently acted as resistance, most recently rejecting price advances in early April around $85,000. The current price at $76,096 sits near the wedge’s lower boundary, which could serve as temporary support.
Should the price break below this lower wedge support, we might see an acceleration of selling pressure toward the $70,000 psychological level. Conversely, any relief rally would likely face significant resistance $80,000-$82,000 before potentially testing the upper boundary near $85,000.
BTCUSD Technical Analysis
The price action has consistently remained below both the 100 and 200 SMAs on this timeframe, confirming the bearish bias. The 100 SMA appears to be flattening and potentially crossing below the 200 SMA, which would signal a bearish crossover and add further weight to the downside scenario.
Previous price rallies have been capped around these moving averages, reinforcing their significance as dynamic resistance zones. Fibonacci retracement levels could also attract selling interest and reinforce the downtrend.
The stochastic oscillator is showing signs of bottoming around the oversold region but hasn’t yet established a clear bullish divergence. This suggests that while temporary relief bounces may occur, the bearish momentum remains intact. The pattern of lower highs in the stochastic aligns with the price action, confirming the ongoing downtrend.
The MACD indicator presents a bearish picture with the blue line below the signal line and the histogram in negative territory. Recent attempts at recovery have been short-lived, with the MACD failing to cross above the signal line in a convincing manner. This bearish configuration suggests that downward momentum is likely to continue in the near term.
Key Bitcoin Levels to Watch
If Bitcoin stages a corrective bounce from current levels, key Fibonacci retracement levels to watch would be:
- 38.2% retracement around $82,500
- 50% retracement near $85,000, which coincides with the upper channel boundary
- 61.8% retracement at approximately $87,500
These levels will likely serve as significant resistance zones in any upward correction. The 50% retracement level is particularly noteworthy as it aligns with the broken support from earlier patterns and the upper channel resistance.
Bitcoin Price Outlook
The overall technical picture suggests that Bitcoin remains in a bearish phase within its broader uptrend. The price needs to break above the descending wedge to invalidate the short-term bearish bias.
Until then, traders should watch for potential bounces from the lower wedge boundary, but remain cautious as these may represent selling opportunities rather than the start of a sustained recovery.
Key support levels to monitor include the current wedge bottom at around $76,000 and the psychological $70,000 level below that. A break below the wedge bottom could set off a drop that’s the same height as the formation, which spans around $20,000. Resistance levels include the mid-channel area around $80,000-$82,000 and the upper boundary at $85,000.
Given the technical setup, Bitcoin appears poised for continued consolidation or further downside in the short term, with traders likely to remain cautious until clearer signs of reversal emerge. Those looking for entry points should wait for either a confirmed break of the channel structure or strong reversal signals from oversold conditions.
Risk aversion in the financial markets brought forth by worsening trade tensions appear to be the primary catalyst for the declines in bitcoin prices, as other risk assets like commodities and stocks are also in selloff mode. Any signs of agreement between the US and its trade partners could provide a bit of reprieve and allow higher-yielding holdings to stay afloat for the time being.
