Bitcoin is on track towards testing a significant support level after stalling on its latest uptrend. The cryptocurrency is forming what appears to be a complex head and shoulders pattern around the $93,500 level in late March.
This has triggered a substantial bearish move that found support near the $77,100 region. This support level has sparked a corrective bounce, bringing price action to test the 38.2% Fibonacci extension level.
Key Bitcoin Levels to Watch
- 38.2% Fibonacci extension: $82,720
- 50% Fibonacci extension: $81,838
- 61.8% Fibonacci extension: $80,957
- Reversal Pattern neckline: $93,500
- 0.764 Fibonacci level: $79,866
- 1.0 Fibonacci level/recent low: $78,104
Price Action and Chart Patterns
Looking at the chart, BTC/USD is currently trading at $84,597, which sits just above the 38.2% Fibonacci extension level at $82,720. The recent bounce from the $77,100 support zone (marked as the 1.0 Fibonacci level at $78,104) shows that buyers stepped in to prevent further decline, but the recovery appears to be facing resistance as price approaches the key Fibonacci levels.
The reversal formation that preceded this decline remains influential, as the neckline around $93,500 coincides with the 50% Fibonacci extension level. This area will likely act as significant resistance should the current bounce extend higher. For traders looking for potential reversal points, the 50% level at $81,838 and the 61.8% level at $80,957 warrant close attention.
BTCUSD Technical Analysis
The 100 and 200 Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) are displaying a bearish configuration. The 100 SMA (blue line) has crossed below the 200 SMA (red line), confirming the shift in momentum from bullish to bearish. Currently, price is trading below both moving averages, which reinforces the bearish outlook. These moving averages may act as dynamic resistance levels during any attempted recovery.
The positioning of these SMAs suggests that sellers have the upper hand in the near term, with the 100 SMA potentially serving as the first significant resistance level during any upward movement. A sustained break above both moving averages would be necessary to invalidate the current bearish bias.
The Stochastic oscillator is approaching the overbought territory, suggesting that the current bounce may be losing momentum. As the oscillator nears the upper boundary of its range, traders should watch for potential divergence or a downturn, which would signal renewed selling pressure.
The MACD indicator is showing some positive momentum with the histogram bars turning green and the MACD line crossing above the signal line. However, this positive momentum appears limited and may fade as price encounters resistance at the Fibonacci levels.
Bitcoin Price Outlook
The overall technical structure suggests that Bitcoin remains in a short-term bearish trend within its longer-term bullish trajectory. Traders should watch for potential rejection at current levels or at the higher Fibonacci zones. A failure to break above the 38.2% level could trigger another leg down toward the recent lows.
For bulls to regain control, Bitcoin would need to decisively break above the $87,500 highs and the s00 SMA. Such a move would potentially invalidate the current bearish setup and open the path toward the double top region near $93,500.
Traders should remain cautious due to the conflicting signals between shorter and longer-term timeframes. While the current chart shows bearish dominance, the longer-term ascending trendline from mid-2023 suggests that the broader bullish structure remains intact, provided the March lows hold as support.
